Exploring Near-Term Financial Futures and Responses for Banking Customers
Customer Research, Market Trend Research, Strategic Foresight, Scenario Forecasting, Workshop Planning
Introduction
Business banking customer sentiment data and research identified critical concerns related to economic environment, like rising tariff costs and pending Federal Reserve decisions. To help leadership better understand these concerns and uncertainties, I designed and facilitated a stakeholder workshop to explore possible future-state scenarios and identify strategic responses to those potential futures.
“Businesses are concerned [about the current climate], but are not in crisis mode yet”
Primary Research Finding
Duration
90-Minute Workshop
Three weeks for planning and preparation
Role
Staff Researcher
Lead Facilitator
Workshop Designer
Stakeholders
Banking Product and Marketing Leaders
Workshop Overview
This 90-minute workshop brought together cross-functional Product and Marketing leaders (N=14) to review customer sentiment data and research, ideate potential scenarios regarding the top two customer concerns, and explore potential responses to the scenarios to support future strategic planning.
Future Scenario Scope
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One year into the future
Structure
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Welcome and Instructions (5min)
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Customer Sentiment Overview and Discussion (30min)
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Scenario Planning | Scenario A (15min)
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Scenario Planning | Scenario B (15min)
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Scenario Planning | Additional Driver (20min)
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Closing Thoughts and Next Steps (5min)
Format
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Online
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Mural board for interactive note taking and ideation
Rules for Creative and Inclusivity
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Wild ideas are strongly encouraged.
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Defer judgement.
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Build on the ideas of others.
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Stay focused on the topic at hand.
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Have one conversations at a time.
Workshop Activities and Scenarios
Customer Sentiment Overview and Discussion (30min)
We started the workshop with revisiting customer data and research, using prompts to encourage discussion and align on business customer understanding.
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E.g., What do you find interesting, surprising, or affirming about these findings? Is there anything else that is missing from these findings based on your knowledge or expertise?
Scenario Planning | Scenarios A and B (15min each)
We then reintroduced the two major factors influencing customer sentiment and economic environments, which we referred to as "key drivers or change" to refine focus for the Scenario Planning activities.
One of the key drivers of change was the implementation of tariffs, and the possible future scenarios for discussion were: (1) the current implementation of tariffs, with variable percentages, on international trading partners, REMAINING THE SAME until the end of the year, and (2) the implementation of tariffs EXPANDING to include more international trading partners, with increased variable percentages by the end of the year.
The workshop participants were prompted to consider the banking customer attitudes, challenges, needs and opportunities for each of those scenarios. (2-3 min each)
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Attitudes: If the current state of tariffs remains the same until the end of the year, how might our existing or potential business customers FEEL? Consider what questions they might be asking themselves.
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Challenges: If the current state of tariffs remains the same until the end of the year, what ECONOMIC or OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES might our existing or potential business customers face? Consider any ongoing strains, bottlenecks, or challenges that might exist, despite no major changes. Are there any variations across customer segmentations?
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Needs: If the current state of tariffs remains the same until the end of the year, what might our existing or potential business customer NEED from their bank? Consider the economic, operational, and/or psychological (e.g., peace of mind) needs they might require to relieve their concerns or challenges.
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Opportunity: If the current state of tariffs remains the same until the end of the year, how might the bank respond to these needs? Consider high-level responses to the the economic, operational, and/or psychological needs previously identified. The goal is to activate ideation, and surface opportunity areas, aiming for quantity, not quality.
The same activity was repeated for the alternate scenario, before proceeding to the final activity which considered an additional driver.
Scenario Planning | Additional Driver (20min)
Since our business customer environments are influenced by a multitude of driving factors of change, we prompted participants to consider a combination of key drivers, using a 2x2 matrix for empathy-building and ideation.
The goal of this exercise was to explore alternative multi-dimensional futures, through rapid ideation, to consider additional, more complex scenarios and potential responses.
Results
The workshop explored six potential future scenarios and resulted in surfacing over 50 strategic response and retention opportunities that included revisions to Marketing and communication approaches, new opportunities in offering business customers financial coaching and support, as well as improved product strategies.
Additionally, the Mural board become a living reference for ongoing work and a template for future ideation.